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金融危机“吹哨人”预警：AI泡沫还有不到一年就会破裂！_我的网站

A |     It is Sushant Singh Rajput's 40th birth anniversary today. From decoding quantum physics on social media to quoting Rumi in interviews, Sushant was more than just an actor. He left a lasting impact through his immense knowledge of philosophy, astronomy and poetry. He was indeed a rare blend of wisdom and stardom. From television to silver screen, Sushant has kept his legacy alive through his work. Here’s a look at a few iconic roles that made him one of the most promising actors in the industry.     1. M.S.Dhoni - M.S.Dhoni : The Untold Story (2016)      Playing Mahendra Singh Dhoni, one of the cricketing legends and the captain cool of India was no easy feat. But Sushant embodied the character with such great detail and brilliance – be it the calm demeanour, success and failure, the undeniable charm which gained him much critical and commercial acclaim. The film was celebrated for how Sushant portrayed Dhoni in the most human way possible rather than turning him into a larger-than-life hero.     2. Anirudh Pathak – Chhichhore (2019)            In this slice of life film on college life, love success and failure, Sushant played Anirudh, a former hostel misfit turned father, an underdog who along with his friends were considered ‘losers’. When Anirudh's own son attempts to take his life, he takes him on a journey of his own and how he turned his defeats into victory with his ‘losers’ by his side. Sushant in this film became that one mentor, an inner voive that well all need when life hits hard. His one line - Tumhara result decide nahi karta hai ki tum loser ho ki nahi ... tumhari koshish decide karti hai is enough to get one through the darkest of days.      3. Ishaan Bhatt – Kai Po Che (2013)               Through his debut in Kai Po Che Sushant proved that he wasn't just a TV actor trying to make it in Bollywood, he was meant for the silver screen. Ishaan, a former cricketer tuned coach, was full of contradictions, fiery, flawed, individualistic, vulnerable and determined. The performance he delivered, especially towards the film's ending, made his screen presence even more magnetic.     4. Detective Byomkesh Bakshy -Detective Byomkesh Bakshy! (2015)      This was a period thriller and a bold detour from other roles that Sushant had adopted. It was a space that hadn't been explored by many in Bollywood. Playing the young Bengali sleuth during 1940s British India was different from the boyish charm in Kai Po Che or Shudh Desi Romance.  Here we had Byomkesh who was mature, sometimes over-confident and a deeply human character on a hunt for truth. The way he delivered more through his eyes than words, the Bengali accent, sharp intuition all contributed to the film's success.       5. Manny – Dil Bechara (2020)     Based on the Hollywood romantic drama, Fault In Our Stars, Dil Bechara in hindsight feels like a very emotional goodbye, a farewell of a star gone too soon. Through Immanuel Rajkumar Junior, Sushant gave a strikingly heartbreaking performance in his ever-charming way. Manny is a cancer survivor with only and only infectious zest for life. Theres a scene in the movie when Manny says Janam kab lena hai aur marna kab hai ... hum decide nahi kar sakte ... par kaise jeena hai ... woh hum decide kar sakte hai feels beautifully painful and one can't help but remember the late actor with a smile.  It was Sushant's final love letter to his fans. He may be gone but through his dialogues, dance, iconic smirk and charm – he lives on.     Also Read: Remembering Sushant Singh Rajput: The actor wanted to party with Shah Rukh Khan and he did it。    　　曾因准确预测2008年金融海啸而受到广泛关注的澳大利亚经济学家Steve Keen发出最新警报称，人工智能（AI）泡沫还有不到一年的时间就要破裂了。　　他在接受最新采访时表示，当前AI相关投资热潮正在把大量资金推向数据中心和算力基础设施，但相关收入能否覆盖成本仍存疑。他预计，真正能长期留下来的用户带来的收入，大约只有这些公司支出水平的五分之一。　　他警告称，“我认为人工智能泡沫的持续时间不到一年了。”　　“那些不活跃的用户正在消失，而来自真正用户的收入（或许能够长期维持）看起来只有这些公司目前成本水平的五分之一左右。所以我预计许多公司会因此遭受巨额亏损。”他补充道。　　2010年，《现实世界经济学评论》（Real-World Economics Review，简称 RWER）的读者投票选出哪位经济学家最早、最清晰地警告了即将到来的金融危机。

B | Keen位居榜首，“末日博士”鲁比尼位居第二。　　并非2008年的重演　　不过，在Keen提出上述警告的同时，他也强调，他并不是在预测一次由银行业引发的系统性金融危机，这一点与2008年不同。他说：“我并不认为这次会像2007年那样出现债务危机，因为相对而言，信贷需求相当低。

C | ”　　据悉，Keen使用的数据仅涵盖到2025年第一季度，他估计新增借款所资助的支出占GDP的比例约为4%至6%。

D | 根据他的数据，这一比例曾在2006年第三季度达到15.4%的峰值。　　Keen指出，他关注的触发因素来自金融体系之外——实体供应中断对公司现金流的影响。

E | 　　“这并非像2007年那样的金融危机，而是偿还金融业债务的能力危机，因为生产体系已经遭到破坏，”他说道：“我们会看到一些原本完全有能力偿债的公司，突然发现自己拿不到生产所需的投入。”　　在他看来，接下来将出现一系列破产案例。

F | 　　数据中心沦为匹克球场？　　Keen将当前AI热潮类比为19世纪40年代的铁路泡沫，而不是2008年房地产泡沫。他说：“我认为，我们即将看到一个非常大的泡沫破裂，规模堪比19世纪的铁路泡沫，因为太多公司把大笔资金投向了数据中心和AI。”　　据彭博社汇编的数据显示，今年企业已为数据中心和其他人工智能投资借款超过4100亿美元。

G | 另据报道，数据中心运营商QTS Realty为一处与微软相关、位于佐治亚州的设施发行了39亿美元债券，收益率约为7.23%，而这类投资级债券的收益率甚至高于部分中等评级垃圾债。作为对比，美国政府10年期借贷成本约为4.7%。

H | 　　Keen认为，放贷方未来可能会后悔当初收取的利率太低。他说道：“很多数据中心会发现，7%的利率和你最终要承受的损失相比，简直太划算了。”　　他还指出，房地产泡沫从未面临过这样的问题：房子30年后依然能为人们提供住所，而GPU三年后就失去了竞争力。

I | 　　他解释说，“当你拥有数据中心时，三四年后，驱动数据中心的GPU就不再具有竞争力了，所以你不得不再次投资。如果你在续约阶段没有获得足够的收益来弥补这笔投资，那么你就不会续约。”　　这让他对这些建筑本身产生了不太好的看法，并补充道：“所以我认为，把这些数据中心改建成匹克球场，是一个相当合理的设想。”　　不过目前来看，市场反应与此相反。彭博数据显示，继6月和7月创下历史新高之后，8月份投资级债券发行量再次刷新月度纪录，需求与供应保持同步。

J | 买家持续涌入。

K | 　　Keen的回答是，市场参与者往往会一直追随热情，直到热情突然消退。“起初，人们仍会被这种狂热裹挟。

L | ”当被问及为何专业放贷人总是在这类周期中后知后觉时，他直言：“他们不理解这个周期。”（文章来源：财联社）。

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Published on:17:21:03