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生意社基差率分布年度监测(2022/09/14)_正态分布_周期_我的网站

大秦帝国

A |     

Photo: VCG
    Photo: VCG
China reported 522,000 newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in July, including 487 severe cases and one related death with cases showing a fluctuating upward trend, China's national disease control authority said. 
The current uptick in infections represents another regular cyclical wave, with its severity comparable to surges seen in the past two years. The upward growth curve has slowed markedly, and the country is now on the plateau phase of this epidemic peak, said the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese CDC) on Thursday. 
All tested infection samples were confirmed to be the Omicron variant, with the NB.1.8.1 strain and its sublineages accounting for the majority of circulating cases, the Chinese CDC said. 
A Beijing-based respiratory disease specialist told the Global Times that waning population immunity, continued virus mutations that weaken existing antibody protection, and increased summer travel have contributed to the recent modest rise in infections. However, there is no evidence that the virus has become more pathogenic. Nationwide infections appear to be nearing their peak and case numbers may begin falling in late August. 
A screenshot from Chinese CDC report on new COVID-19 cases in July nationwide
    A screenshot from Chinese CDC report on new COVID-19 cases in July nationwide
According to sentinel hospital surveillance data, from June 29-July 5 to July 27-August 2, the proportion of influenza-like illness among all outpatient and emergency visits at China's 1,041 COVID-19 and influenza sentinel hospitals edged up with slight fluctuations, standing at 4.3 percent, 4.4 percent, 4.5 percent, 4.4 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
During the same period, the COVID-19 positivity rate among patients with influenza-like illness in outpatient and emergency departments rose for consecutive weeks.
Several factors drove the fluctuating rise in COVID-19 cases in July. Population immunity has waned, as more than six months have passed since the last major wave of infections for most people, while continued SARS-CoV-2 mutations have reduced the protection provided by existing antibodies, Li Tongzeng, a respiratory disease medic from Beijing You An Hospital to the Capital Medical University, told the Global Times on Friday. 
These factors, combined with increased travel and population mobility during the summer vacation, contributed to the recent small-scale surge. Based on patterns observed in recent years, COVID-19 infections tend to rise every six to eight months as population immunity declines, said Li.
The expert noted that while the virus continues to mutate, there is no evidence that it has become more pathogenic. Clinical data show that most patients develop only mild symptoms, with very few progressing to pneumonia or requiring hospitalization.
The Chinese CDC noted on Thursday that since COVID-19 was reclassified as a Category B infectious disease under Category B management, it has evolved into a prevalent, recurring respiratory infectious disease in China, with one to two epidemic fluctuations occurring nationwide each year.
Li also noted that residual immunity from previous infections also helps reduce disease severity, with most reinfections presenting as mild upper respiratory symptoms that resolve within about a week. The single COVID-related death reported nationwide in July further indicates that the current fatality rate remains very low.
Judging from historical epidemic patterns and current case growth trajectories, national infection figures may begin to decline in late August. Nationwide case numbers are now nearly at their peak, with declines already observed in some regions, said Li. 
The Chinese CDC also said on Thursday that surveillance had not detected any variants posing major public health risks, nor had the current wave caused notable disruptions to the healthcare system.
The public is advised to take appropriate protective measures, including wearing masks when necessary, maintaining good personal hygiene, adopting healthy lifestyles and getting vaccinated as recommended.
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原标题:生意社基差率分布年度监测(2022/09/14)生意社生意社定义:基差率=主力基差/现货价格×100%。据生意社对基差率10年以上的监测发现,较长周期内基差率符合正态分布,且具有以下的特征:1、基差率变化有一定的趋势;2、基差率放大到一定程度必然回归。生意社测算了各商品期货的最新基差率,在不同周期内的分布(见以下各表)。基于正态分布理论:1σ外(表示基差率分布在平均值±1个标准差之外),投资机会较大;2σ外投资机会更大。

B | 2022-09-13基差率在1年内的分布

商品名称当日基差率均值分布
大豆(期)5.80%-0.67%1σ外
玉米-2.03%-0.98%
玉米淀粉3.19%6.62%
苯乙烯5.58%1.91%
乙二醇-2.31%1.66%1σ外
铁矿石(澳)6.23%12.81%1σ外
冶金焦1.23%-4.16%
鸡蛋22.45%5.89%1σ外
炼焦煤20.25%13.30%
LLDPE-0.35%1.59%
生猪-0.21%-6.52%
豆粕18.12%10.25%1σ外
棕榈油(期)8.28%14.44%1σ外
液化气5.30%6.13%
PP(拉丝)1.20%0.82%
PVC-1.07%2.04%
大豆油10.71%6.61%2σ外
皮棉8.09%6.04%
棉纱32S19.41%10.74%1σ外
玻璃3.19%6.82%
甲醇-0.76%-0.42%
菜籽油17.09%5.90%2σ外
涤纶短纤3.48%4.45%
小麦3.83%9.17%
菜籽粕18.47%7.84%1σ外
油菜籽(期)10.31%2.47%2σ外
重质纯碱17.37%9.41%
硅铁-9.01%-2.20%1σ外
锰硅-3.79%-0.55%
白糖3.51%-0.66%1σ外
PTA14.26%2.23%2σ外
尿素3.07%7.27%
动力煤1.33%22.53%2σ外
铜(期)1.11%0.71%
铝(期)-0.34%-0.11%
锌(期)2.33%1.12%1σ外
铅(期)-0.18%-0.14%
镍(期)2.10%3.14%
锡(期)3.21%2.24%
黄金0.03%-0.29%
白银-0.53%-0.75%
螺纹钢4.85%3.44%
线材-8.62%-0.54%1σ外
热轧板卷3.06%2.58%
不锈钢0.60%4.69%1σ外
燃料油57.40%43.97%2σ外
沥青13.95%4.35%1σ外
天然橡胶-5.63%-5.06%
针叶木浆9.33%2.39%1σ外
小麦(强)-5.06%-7.30%
注:1σ外,表示基差率分布在平均值±1个标准差之外2σ外,表示基差率分布在平均值±2个标准差之外。分布在1σ内的,则不予标记(即为空)。猜你喜欢 1.生意社:库存低位 上半年豆油棕榈油居高不下 2.生意社:美经济数据利好&OPEC政策悬而未决 油价升至两年半新高 3.生意社:二季度正丁醇行情大涨33% “阅读原文”查看更多↓↓↓ 返回搜狐,查看更多责任编辑:

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Published on:07:24:08


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