纸牌屋第二季

一 |     "[The US export restrictions] will not have much impact on the Chinese semiconductor industry," says Professor Thomas Canhao Xu of Beijing Normal University (BNU) and Hong Kong Baptist University. "These restrictions are associated with the 3 nanometer (nm) technologies while China is now producing 28nm chips for the most part, which are previous generation technologies. The fact is that the 28nm chip technology is mature and the main demand is for chips manufactured in the [28nm lithography] process. Chip manufacturers receive their main income from this product.",On 12 August, the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced that it would impose restrictions on technologies which support manufacturing of advanced semiconductors and turbines to protect them from "nefarious" military and commercial use.,Controls On Chip Exports To China Will Not Work, Trade War May Cost US Up To $100bn, ASML Exec Says15 April 2021, 11:23 GMT,The technologies covered by the newly introduced controls include two substrates of ultra-wide bandgap semiconductors, ie gallium oxide and diamond; electronic computer-aided design software ECAD made for the development of integrated circuits with a Gate-All-Around field-effect transistor (GAAFET) structure; and pressure-gain combustion (PGC) technology that can be used in rockets and hypersonic systems.,The world's leading chip manufacturers such as Samsung, TSMC and Intel have already placed their bets on the GAAFET technology to produce smaller and quicker chips in the future. It is also expected that diamonds and gallium oxides will be used to make semiconductors enabling them to operate under harsher conditions, such as at higher voltages or higher temperatures. Consequently, the aforementioned technologies will help multiply the density of transistors and interconnects on a single chip thus dramatically improving their performance.,Even though the BIS restrictions do not explicitly mention China, it is clear that they are aimed at preventing Beijing from gaining access to breakthrough technologies, according to Bloomberg.,"Breakthrough technologies are undeniably important, but they represent only a small fraction of the entire semiconductor industry," argues Xu. "The long-term effect of these restrictions on China will depend on how China develops its own industry, including equipment for the production of chips. On the horizon of 10 to 20 years, significant changes may occur in the industry and fundamentally new technologies may appear.",WorldUS New Chips Law Will Undermine Global Supply Chains: Chinese Foreign Ministry10 August, 12:00 GMT,China Continuing Hi-Tech Development Regardless of US Sanctions,The newly announced restrictions followed a bombshell report of industry watcher TechInsights which revealed that China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) had probably built semiconductors using a 7nm technology.,Earlier, China-based MinerVa Semiconductor Corp., named by TechInsights as SMIC’s customer, demonstrated a 7nm chip on its website, adding that mass production of these semis began in July 2021, according to Bloomberg's 21 July report.,"This is the most advanced technology product TechInsights has seen from SMIC so far and may be leading to a true 7nm process that incorporates scaled logic and memory bitcells," TechInsights explained on 19 July. "It also has key implications for Chinese chip companies, as it helps to reduce China’s reliance on western technologies in this time of restricted access.",The report caught many by surprise given that SMIC had long specialized in 14nm technology. Furthermore, since late 2020, Washington has banned the unlicensed sale of equipment that can be used to make semiconductors of 10nm and beyond to the Chinese company. If SMIC has indeed managed to make a technological leap, it would mean that Washington's sanctions policy failed to curb China's technological development, according to Bloomberg.,The US government is well aware of the problem: according to the White House, at present the US produces roughly 10 percent of the world’s supply of chips, whereas East Asia accounts for a whopping 75 percent of global production. Washington is striving to win the technological race with the Asian giant by imposing further restrictions and expanding investments in the domestic chip industry.,Thus, on 9 August, President Joe Biden signed into law a bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act which includes more than $52Bln for US companies producing semiconductors, as well as billions more in tax credits to encourage investment in the industry. Yet another objective of the newly inked legislation is to prevent American investors from directly or indirectly contributing to the development of semiconductor production in China. One of the conditions for obtaining a government subsidy under the new law is the obligation not to invest in the development of the 28nm and more advanced technologies in China for 10 years.,Huawei Spent $22 Billion on Research in 2021 As Company Resists US Sanctions - Report27 April, 02:45 GMT,For its part, China aims to develop its own technologies, instead of following in the footsteps of western manufacturers. The People's Republic has already proved that alternative solutions are possible and that it can set new global technological standards. For instance, Huawei telecommunications equipment made a splash in global markets when the company developed its own SingleRAN algorithm, which allows configuring one base station to provide communication in 2G, 3G and 4G standards simultaneously. When it comes to the semiconductor industry, China is developing its own technology to produce silicon carbide chips.,Beijing is sparing no expense in research and development (R&D) of promising technologies: according to China's official statistics, the People's Republic's spending on R&D rose 10.3 percent to 2.44 trillion Chinese yuan ($378Bln) and accounted for 2.4 percent of GDP in 2020. Last year, China's Premier Li Keqiang promised that the country's research and development spending would grow by more than 7 percent per year between 2021 and 2025.。    　　行情回顾及主要观点：　　上周A股市场整体呈现调整趋势：沪深300跌1.01%，中证500跌1.70%，中证1000跌2.16%，创业板50上周跌2.09%，科创50跌3.73%。交易面，A股市场日均成交额在2.17万亿左右，流动性回落。产业层面，光通信板块上周迎来多重催化：美国ITI正式反对FCC将光模块列入限制清单，外部恐慌情绪逐步消解；中际旭创半年报营收417.78亿元（同比+182.49%）、净利136.51亿元（同比+241.70%）；新易盛推出激进股权激励，营收目标跳升至千亿级，释放高增长强信心。

二 | 建议继续关注重仓AI算力、半导体设备、新能源电池等核心科技龙头的创业板50指数。　　创业板为成长型创新创业企业提供直接融资平台。

三 | 权重行业方面，创业板50指数聚焦信息技术+新能源+金融科技+医药四大新质生产力赛道，科技成长属性纯粹。　　图：创业板50指数四大赛道　　数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2026-8-21　　创业板50指数：追“光”识“新”更掘“金”。横向对比来看，创业板50指数的光模块含量、新能源电池含量以及金融科技含量优于创业板指以及主流宽基指数。　　创业板50ETF华安（159949）：汇聚创业板优势领域白马，聚焦高科技成长属性的龙头企业，近六年ROE水平保持15%~19%高位，对比其他主流宽基指数优势突出，2025/2026Q1归母净利润增速高达21.58%/42.38%。

四 | 当前估值35.08倍，近十年30.62%分位（数据来源：Wind，截至2026-8-21）。

五 | 　　创业板50指数（399673.SZ）权重行业观点：　　上周通信板块有三件大事值得关注。一是上周美国信息科技产业委员会（ITI）正式向美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）表达“反对FCC将光模块列入限制清单”，ITI特别强调，光模块对数据中心建设具有关键作用，一旦供应链受到扰动，将直接影响美国数据中心的部署进度乃至美国AI的整体竞争力。

六 | 当前光模块领域美国对中国的依赖远大于中国对相关管制的忌惮，FCC管制预期带来的恐慌情绪正逐步消解，有望推动光通信板块情绪修复。　　二是光模块龙头中际旭创交出亮眼半年报，上半年实现营业收入417.78亿元，同比增长182.49%；归母净利润136.51亿元，同比增长241.70%，拟每10股派发现金红利12元。1.6T硅光模块进入规模放量阶段成为收入增长核心，且在手订单已覆盖2026全年并延伸至2027年，公司同步推进NPO/XPO/CPO/OCS等下一代光互连技术布局。　　三是新易盛抛出激进股权激励计划，拟向不超过961名激励对象授予限制性股票总量648.12万股，授予价格为212元/股，约为最新收盘价的50%。业绩考核目标从百亿级直接跳升至千亿级：2026—2028年营收目标分别不低于500亿元、累计不低于1400亿元、累计不低于2900亿元，释放出对未来三年高增长的强信心。

七 | 　　建议长期持续关注光模块、光器件及CPO产业链，创业板50指数含“光”量达30%，远高于其余主流宽基指数。

八 | （以上个股仅作示例，不作为投资建议）　　上周新能源电池板块随大盘高位震荡。

九 | 碳酸锂价格企稳反弹——8月以来主力合约从约13.5万元/吨升至近15.9万元/吨、月内最高涨逾17%，本质是对明年过度悲观需求预期的集中修复，叠加锂盐厂集中检修、津巴布韦锂精矿到港不及预期与库存连续十余周去化的供给偏紧支撑。产业数据来看，8月头部电池企业排产环比大幅提升，行业开工率普遍超85%、头部企业满负荷生产并启动外协，Q2业绩延续向上、9-10月旺季临近。锂电消费税落地扰动，自2026年9月1日起对锂离子电池按2%税率征收消费税（2027年9月升至4%，钠电/固态电池继续免征），亿纬锂能等已宣布9月起内销电池涨价约2%、多家产业链企业发布5%–30%调价公告，市场关注成本传导与顺价能力，机构普遍认为对行业整体盈利影响有限、反而利于落后产能出清与份额向龙头集中。此外，2026世界动力电池大会将于9月3–4日在四川宜宾举办，产业催化预期升温。（以上个股仅作示例，不作为投资建议）　　上周电子板块有所调整，但产业端催化密集。长江存储科创板IPO正式获上交所受理，计划募资330亿元，2026年一季度营收470.42亿元、归母净利润333.79亿元，全球NAND Flash厂商按出货量排名已升至全球第三、中国第一，有望带动上游设备、材料、封测等产业链协同受益。兆易创新半年报业绩爆发，上半年营收115.66亿元（同比+178.67%），归母净利润68.57亿元（同比+1091.50%），存储景气持续改善正加速向利润端传导。板块短期调整不改AI算力与国产化两条产业主线，存储芯片景气上行、先进制程突破与国产存储龙头资本化三重逻辑共振，电子板块中长期配置价值依然突出。（以上个股仅作示例，不作为投资建议）　　创业板50ETF华安（代码：159949）简介：　　创业板50ETF华安跟踪创业板50指数，指数选取创业板市场知名度较高、流动性和市值居前的50家企业，当前主要涵盖通信、电子、新能源电池、互联网金融、生物医药等五大优势科技赛道龙头，投资价值相对较高。　　创业板50ETF华安（代码：159949）流动性充足，过去一年日均成交额21.11亿元，排名深交所ETF前列。该指数基金最新规模248.32 亿元，是市场上跟踪创业板相关指数较大的基金之一。　　创业板50ETF华安（159949）上周表现：交易代码基金名称净值规模（亿元）上周日均成交额（亿元）159949华安创业板50ETF1.6766248.3217.98　　数据来源：Wind，华安基金，2026-8-17至2026-8-21　　风险提示：以上仅为标的指数当前成份股分布的客观介绍，不构成任何投资建议，不作为投资收益的保证。

十 | 指数公司后续可能对指数编制方案进行调整，指数成份股的构成和权重可能会动态变化，请关注部分指数成份股权重较大、集中度较高的风险。

十一 | 　　本基金属于股票型基金，属于较高风险、较高预期收益的基金品种，主要投资于标的指数成份股及备选成份股，其联接基金主要通过投资目标ETF紧密跟踪标的指数的表现。

十二 | 本基金预期收益与风险高于货币市场基金、债券型基金与混合型基金，具有与标的指数相似的风险收益特征。：基金管理公司不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。基金产品收益存在波动风险，投资需谨慎，详情请认真阅读本基金的基金合同、招募说明书等基金法律文件。责任编辑：杨红卜。

十三 |