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日本足球降低预期！足协主席亲承：先进世界杯8强_我的网站

无心法师

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Liu Mengfei at Beijing's Homoludens Archive Photo: Courtesy of Liu Mengfei
Inside Beijing's Homoludens Archive, shelves are filled with books, game consoles, game cartridges and other materials tracing the history of video games. For Liu Mengfei, the archive's director and chair of the academic committee of the Gamification Professional Committee, these collections preserve more than the evolution of games, they also capture the cultural memories of a generation.
A PhD in history from Tsinghua University, Liu has spent more than a decade studying the social impact of games, the role of games in history and digital humanities. Throughout her career, she has continued to explore the relationship between games and people: Why do humans create games? And how do games shape culture and society?
Books, meanwhile, have been an important gateway through which Liu has come to understand the world of games.
"The real value of a book lies not simply in what it tells you, but in whether it can change the way you understand the world and people," Liu told the Global Times.
Books meet games

In 2007, being an undergraduate history student, Liu wrote her thesis on the links between ancient Celtic religion and modern digital games.
To study original sources such as The Gallic War by Roman author Julius Caesar, she taught herself Latin. As her research extended into modern games, she also began reading the rulebooks of Dungeons & Dragons, a tabletop role-playing game.
"From historical texts to game rulebooks, these reading experiences seemed to belong to completely different worlds, but they gradually led me to realize that games are not simply entertainment products. They also contain history, culture and the relationships between people and society," she said.
Later, Homo Ludens, by Dutch historian Johan Huizinga, further transformed the way she understood games. The book gives a theory that humans are not only Homo sapiens, or "rational beings," but also Homo ludens, or "playing beings," and that games are deeply intertwined with human culture, from language and art to religious rituals and sports.
The book had a profound influence on her. It points out that the foundations of human society — language, civilization, religious rituals, sports and art, are all connected to play and games, because we are Homo ludens, "the playing human."
"The idea prompted me to view games from a broader perspective," Liu said. "Games are not an appendage outside human civilization, but are deeply connected to cultural creation and social life."
"It also showed me that games and game-based thinking could extend into broader fields, including education and technology," she added.
She later read other works on game studies, including Play Between Worlds: Exploring Online Game Culture, Half-Real and Rules of Play Game Design Fundamentals. Play Between Worlds, in particular, opened up another possibility for game studies at a time when discussions about "internet addiction" were prevalent in China.
"Games are not simply a form of entertainment that needs to be restricted or criticize;. they can also serve as important media for storytelling, cultural expression and exploring relationships," she said.
These reading experiences gradually shifted Liu's focus from simply asking "What are games?" to a deeper question: What can games bring to people?
Beyond time and technology
Periodically, Liu still returns to Homo Ludens in her free time, finding new insights from the book as society changes. In the age of artificial intelligence, she has revisited one of its fundamental questions: As AI becomes increasingly capable of handling repetitive tasks and surpasses humans in efficiency, what does it mean to be human?
"As AI takes over more monotonous and repetitive work, the time freed up should be devoted to creativity, experience and human relationships," she said. "The time we gain should actually be used to become better at 'playing humans.'"
For Liu, this also requires people to maintain their ability to think, imagine and reflect -- abilities that cannot be gained through simply receiving information. This has also prompted her to reconsider the meaning of reading.
In an era when AI can quickly summarize an entire book, Liu believes people still need to read the original works in full, because the value of reading lies in more than simply acquiring knowledge and conclusions.
"Reading a book is like a form of cultivation. You have to immerse yourself in it, patiently allow the author to take you on a journey, and find your own island along the way," she said.
For Liu, the value of reading is not limited to books on paper. As media evolve, so do the ways people encounter stories and understand culture. Some digital works are now becoming new vehicles for reading.
Chinese-developed games such as Genshin Impact contain hundreds of thousands, and even more than a million Chinese characters of text, while Black Myth: Wukong uses its "Journal" system to tell the stories of individual monsters through written entries.
"Digital games are carrying forward traditions inherited from literature and film, becoming new gateways, through which young people can enter the worlds of literature, history and traditional culture," she said.
"An important reason why Black Myth: Wukong has succeeded in communicating Chinese culture is that it does not simply insert traditional cultural symbols into a game. Instead, it draws on the original Journey to the West, contemporary works inspired by the classic, as well as the game's own rules and interactions, allowing players to develop a new understanding of traditional culture through their actions," she noted.
For Liu, the forms of reading may change, but the desire to understand the world and discover oneself will not. From books to digital worlds, what matters is not only what people read or play, but how they think, create and find meaning through these experiences.
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2026美加墨世界杯，日本在1/16决赛被巴西补时2-1绝杀，因此止步32强。连续五届世界杯小组出线，却始终跨不过淘汰赛首轮这道坎。大赛落幕之后的7月24日，日本足协主席宫本恒靖抛出了一句极具冲击力的大实话。「2005年定下2030年冲击四强，但如今环境早已不一样，当初的目标或许需要做出修正，我们先要把八强当成实实在在的目标。」谁能想到，曾经扬言冲击世界杯四强乃至夺冠的日本队，如今由足协主席亲口主动调低目标，转向争取踢进八强。这些年的日本足球，早已是亚洲足坛的教科书级别存在。成熟完善的全国青训体系、源源不断的旅欧人才、极致细腻的传控战术、超高的团队执行力。

二 | 单论体系建设，日本足球早已甩开亚洲所有对手，甚至不输欧洲二流强队。但残酷的魔咒，整整困住日本足球二十年：连续五届世界杯，全部倒在十六强门口。

三 | 打得好看、场面占优、数据漂亮，可一到大赛的关键战，就是捅不破那层窗户纸。原本光鲜的背后，藏着日本足球难以突破的三大硬伤，也是所有亚洲强队共同的瓶颈。首先是缺少能够逆天改命的顶级爆点。

四 | 日本球员的优点高度统一：勤奋、自律、战术执行力拉满、适配团队体系。然而，缺点也一模一样：球员风格较为同质化，缺乏天赋顶级个人能力极为突出的球员。强强对话的战术博弈，当传球线路被封死、高压对抗拉满、体系运转彻底瘫痪时，需要的是巨星灵光一闪、单兵突破、强行破局。而这恰恰就是当前最为欠缺的一环，日本男足队内一众球员在各自俱乐部都证明了自己，个个都是出色的战术拼图，却始终缺少一位能在世界杯这种顶级大赛上一锤定音改写战局的关键球员。

五 | 其次是高强度身体对抗的天然劣势。技术可以练、配合可以磨、战术可以教，但身体天赋、对抗硬度、爆发力差距，是后天努力很难抹平的鸿沟。面对欧洲南美强队的高强度对抗，一旦比赛节奏被对手带向高强度乱战，会接连出现传控失误、拿球稳定性下降、攻防中落入下风，只能是遗憾出局。最后是硬仗底蕴和绝境心态的缺失。日本队以稳定体系取胜，可以说擅长顺风球，将对手带入自己的节奏，却不擅长生死战。

六 | 领先容易保守、落后容易慌乱、多次领先后被逆转。这不是战术失误，而是在大赛的高压之下，心理素质、大赛底气、绝境韧性，还是比不上久经硬仗的世界强队。主教练森保一也被诟病调整保守，任期到2027亚洲杯结束，下任日本队主帅将是现任日本U21主教练大岩刚。从喊出进世界杯四强乃至争冠，到世界杯结束后足协主席说出八强目标，日本足球主动降低预期，是经历今年世界杯出局后最清醒的自我认知。真正的强大，从来不是盲目喊口号堆纸面实力，而是敢于直面短板正视差距。日本足球对世界杯目标的主动降温，表明了深耕人才培养完善战术体系，可以让亚洲球队追上世界二流，但若要触碰世界前几，仅靠努力和体系还并不够。