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A | AI摘要 台风“沙德尔”趋向浙闽，福建提升防汛应急响应。福州未来一周晴雨交替，27日高温达38℃，多日有强降雨。 CARACAS, Venezuela -- Early returns in the Venezuelan opposition's presidential primary gave a big lead to former legislator Maria Corina Machado early Monday, and she quickly claimed victory as the voters' choice to lead the campaign to end the decade-long, crisis-ridden presidency of Nicolás Maduro. The independent National Primary Commission, which organized the primary, did not release any results until long after polling stations closed Sunday, blaming internet censorship. The organizers said that in the first 601,110 ballots counted, about 93% picked Machado, who had entered the vote as a strong front-runner. The rest of the votes were scattered among the other nine candidates. There was no indication of how many people cast ballots in all, and organizers were expected to release additional results throughout Monday.“Today, very powerful forces have been unleashed," Machado told supporters gathered outside her campaign headquarters in the capital, Caracas. “Today, we have shown ourselves what we are capable of doing in the face of all the obstacles, in the face of all the abuses.”Holding Venezuela’s first presidential primary since 2012 required the deeply fractured opposition to work together. Venezuelans, in turn, showed up at voting centers in and outside of their homeland to make it count, enthusiastically lining up for hours despite scorching sun and torrential rain.Still, what they saw as a monumental exercise in democracy could still prove futile, if Maduro’s government wishes.While the administration agreed in principle to let the opposition choose its candidate for the 2024 presidential election, it also has already barred Machado from running for office. Maduro’s government has in the past bent the law, retaliated against opponents and breached agreements as it sees fit.Hundreds of people gathered at voting centers in neighborhoods across Caracas even before polls opened. They stayed in line despite a rainstorm that left them soaking wet. They carried umbrellas, folding stools and coffee to ease the expected waits, and leaned against buildings or stood under marquees to try to avoid the rain. Caracas resident Stephanie Aguilar, 34, cried while she waited to vote. She described the primary as the only “salvation” for her country, her daughter and son, and the millions of Venezuelans who decided they had to emigrate due to the nation’s economic and political turmoil. “We want a better country, a free country, for my children ... who have grown up in this government,” Aguilar, a housewife, said as she wiped tears from her face. “They ask, ‘Mom, can we go out to eat?’ No, there is no money. ‘Mom, can we do this thing?’ No, there is no money. It is unfortunate that a society grows up under those conditions.”Venezuelans typically vote at public schools, but the independent commission that oversaw the primary opted to use homes, churches, private schools and other facilities after electoral authorities did not respond to requests for help in a timely manner.Jesús María Casal, head of the National Primary Commission, blamed the hours-long delay in issuing election results on internet restrictions. “Once we began the process of counting the results ... we detected that our server that functioned as a transmission channel was blocked, which prevents us from completing this process as scheduled,” he said.The London-based internet monitoring firm NetBlocks tweeted metrics showing “a disruption to internet connectivity in #Venezuela with high impact to Caracas." It added that a state-owned internet service provider claimed “an issue with its energy backup system.”David Smilde, an expert on Venezuelan politics at Tulane University, said the primary was a “significant achievement” for several reasons, including forcing political leaders and parties within the opposition “to reach out and speak to the people.”“And it has generated considerable enthusiasm and mobilization in a population that has been skeptical of the opposition leadership of late,” he said.Machado, a proponent of free-market economic policies, is a longtime critic of the governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela. She maintained a somewhat low profile for years but dominated the primary campaign by connecting with the same voters she consistently urged to boycott previous elections.The presidential election is expected to be scheduled for the second half of 2024. Maduro is looking to extend his presidency until 2030, which would surpass the time that Hugo Chávez, his mentor, governed and established his self-described socialist policies.Maduro’s allies ridiculed and dismissed the primary all year. Still, both the government and its opponents used the contest as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from each other as part of a negotiation process meant to end the country’s complex social, economic and political crisis. Maduro and an opposition faction backed by the U.S. government last week agreed to work together on basic conditions for the presidential contest. That prompted the government to release six political prisoners and the Biden administration to lift key economic sanctions. As part of the agreement, Maduro’s administration and the opposition are supposed to “recognize and respect the right of each political actor to select” a presidential candidate freely.If organizers declare Machado the primary's winner, the focus will shift to Maduro to see if the government reverses its ban on her seeking public office. In June, the government issued an administrative decision prohibiting Machado from running, alleging fraud and tax violations and accusing her of seeking the economic sanctions the U.S. imposed on Venezuela in the last decade. The U.S., holding up the threat of renewed sanctions, has given Venezuela until the end of November to establish a process for reinstating all candidates expeditiously.A U.N.-backed panel investigating human rights abuses in Venezuela said last month that Maduro’s government has intensified efforts to curtail democratic freedoms ahead of the 2024 election. That includes subjecting some politicians and other opponents to detention, surveillance, threats, defamatory campaigns and arbitrary criminal proceedings.All registered voters in Venezuela were allowed to participate in the primary, as well as tens of thousands living in several other countries.“This is unprecedented,” said a smiling María de los Ángeles León, 31, the coordinator of Mexico City’s voting site. “People know that we have no guarantees that the winner of this election will be able to advance to the presidential election, but we keep trying.”___Associated Press writer María Verza in Mexico City contributed to this report.。专家提醒防范次生灾害，预计9至11月影响福建台风2至3个，强度偏强。 8月25日，记者从气象部门获悉，今年第18号台风“沙德尔”趋向浙闽沿海。
B | 市民要及时关注预警信息。
C | 未来福州“晴雨交替” 来自中央气象台的消息，台风“沙德尔”预计于8月26日凌晨移入东海东部，之后移速减慢，转向西偏南方向移动，逐渐向浙闽沿海靠近，将于8月27日夜间至28日上午在浙江象山到福建福清一带沿海登陆（12至14级，台风级或强台风级）。 福建省气象台于8月25日14时将暴雨预警提升为Ⅰ级，福建省防指于8月25日14时将防汛应急响应提升为二级，并维持防台风四级应急响应。福州市气象台于8月25日12时发布台风预警Ⅳ级，福州市防指于8月25日12时30分启动防台风Ⅳ级应急响应并维持防汛Ⅲ级应急响应。 根据福州气象部门预测，未来一周福州市区天气受台风影响，呈现“多雨持续、高温收敛”的特点。气温方面，整体处于26℃至38℃区间，8月27日最高气温预计冲至38℃，为本周峰值；其余时段高温多在32℃至34℃徘徊，低温稳定在26℃至28℃，体感闷热略有缓解。 降雨方面，受台风影响，8月25日以及8月27日至31日均有明显降雨。其中，8月25日、28日雨势较强，仅8月26日短暂转为停歇。这种“晴雨交替”既带来短时降温，也易因湿度叠加而加剧体感不适。 气象部门提醒：受前期持续降水影响，土壤含水量已趋于饱和，本轮强降雨极易诱发中小河流洪水、山洪、城乡低洼区域内涝，以及山体滑坡、塌方、泥石流等次生灾害；海边风浪较大，人们切勿前往岸边观浪，滨海游乐项目需及时关停。 专家解答“台风三问” 25日，记者就市民关心的关于台风的问题采访了气象专家。 问题一：今年西太平洋台风为何如此活跃？ 据国家气象中心统计，今年截至目前，西北太平洋已有21个台风生成，较历史同期偏多。西北太平洋海温偏高、季风槽强盛是今年台风活跃的关键驱动因素。 福建省气候中心高级工程师曹蓉表示，虽然西北太平洋台风生成活跃，但这并不意味着影响福建的台风必然偏多。今年截至目前，共有4个台风影响福建，属正常水平。
D | 问题二：为何今年远洋台风频繁出现？ 据国家气候中心监测预测，当前赤道中东太平洋海表温度持续升高，将形成一次超强厄尔尼诺事件。
E | 在厄尔尼诺发展年，西北太平洋台风生成源地向海区东南部偏移，该海域低层气旋性涡度强、垂直风切变小、海表温度高，有利于远洋台风生成。远洋台风更易发展为强至超强台风，且路径不确定性大。 问题三：厄尔尼诺背景下，后续影响及登陆福建的台风还多吗？ 在厄尔尼诺快速发展的海洋气候背景下，预计9月至11月影响及登陆福建的台风总数为2至3个。
F | 整体数量与常年基本持平，台风整体强度偏强，风雨影响较为显著。 当前，强盛带状副热带高压稳定盘踞于华中、华东上空，将引导台风“沙德尔”趋向浙闽沿海登陆，给福建带来新一轮风雨影响。气象专家提醒，台风“简拉维”“沙德尔”接连影响福建，整体风雨影响时间长，间歇期较短，建议持续做好台风灾害防御。（记者 林舒颖 郑瑞洋 通讯员 廖玥）。
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