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Western Investors Set to Return to India, EMEs as Expert Predicts 'Multiple Recessions' in US, EU_我的网站

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A | 　　讯据民政部消息，民政部社会组织管理局通报5起社会团体分支机构、代表机构违法典型案例。 India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。　　社会团体分支机构、代表机构是社会团体的重要组成部分，其运行质量直接关系到社会团体的整体效能，直接影响行业治理和社会服务的实际效果。近年来，社会团体违反规定设立分支机构、代表机构，或者对分支机构、代表机构疏于管理，造成严重后果的案件时有发生。有的在分支机构、代表机构下再设分支机构、代表机构；有的设立地域性分支机构；有的超出章程规定的宗旨和业务范围设立分支机构；有的对分支机构管理不严，致其出现违法违规问题等，扰乱了社会组织登记管理秩序，损害了社会组织公信力，侵害了人民群众合法权益。为发挥以案释法、以案示警作用，现选取部分典型案例予以通报。

B | 　　案例一：中华人民共和国国史学会违反规定设立分支机构、代表机构案　　中华人民共和国国史学会在其分支机构两弹一星历史研究分会下再设立无锡办事处、贵州办事处两个代表机构，承担联络会员单位、保障服务对象、组织相关活动等任务，该行为违反了《民政部关于贯彻落实国务院取消全国性社会团体分支机构、代表机构登记行政审批项目的决定有关问题的通知》第四条“社会团体不得设立地域性分支机构，不得在分支机构、代表机构下再设立分支机构、代表机构”的规定。2025年10月，依据《社会团体登记管理条例》（2016年修订）第三十条第一款第五项的规定，民政部依法对中华人民共和国国史学会作出警告的行政处罚。

C | 　　案例二：北京宜春企业商会违反规定设立分支机构案　　北京宜春企业商会为搭建宜春高安市在京企业家平台，在商会下设高安分会。2023年12月，北京宜春企业商会在履行理事会、会员大会等程序后，决定成立高安分会。北京市民政局在年检中发现该违法情形后，向该商会提出整改要求。2025年1月，该商会按要求履行整改程序，召开理事会及会员大会，决议取消高安分会并停止铜鼓分会、袁州分会成立筹备工作。北京宜春企业商会设立高安分会的行为，违反了《社会团体登记管理条例》（2016年修订）第十七条第二款“社会团体不得设立地域性的分支机构”的规定。2025年6月，依据《社会团体登记管理条例》（2016年修订）第三十条第一款第五项的规定，北京市民政局依法对北京宜春企业商会作出警告的行政处罚。

D | 　　案例三：山西省晋绥边区历史文化研究会超出业务范围开展活动、不按照规定办理变更登记、违反规定设立分支机构案　　山西省晋绥边区历史文化研究会未召开理事会或常务理事会研究通过，违规设立分支机构岚县红色文化专委会；同时还存在超出章程规定的宗旨和业务范围进行活动、住所变更后未按规定向登记管理机关申请变更登记的行为。上述行为违反了《社会团体登记管理条例》（2016年修订）第十八条第一款“社会团体的登记事项需要变更的，应当自业务主管单位审查同意之日起30日内，向登记管理机关申请变更登记”、《社会团体分支机构、代表机构登记办法》第三条“社会团体设立分支机构、代表机构应当按照章程的规定，履行民主程序”等规定。2026年3月，依据《社会团体登记管理条例》（2016年修订）第三十条第一款第二项、第四项、第五项等规定，山西省民政厅依法对山西省晋绥边区历史文化研究会作出停止活动六个月的行政处罚，并责令撤换直接负责的主管人员。　　案例四：项城防水协会违反规定设立分支机构案　　项城防水协会擅自跨区域设立项城防水协会青海分会，后者在青海省西宁市违规发展会员并收取会费。上述行为违反了《社会团体登记管理条例》（2026年修订）第十七条第二款“社会团体不得设立地域性的分支机构”的规定。项城市民政局与业务主管单位联合对该协会负责人进行约谈，责令其限期整改。协会按要求撤销项城防水协会青海分会，并对该机构办公场所牌匾进行拆除，开展财务清算，收缴各类档案资料和印章。2026年7月，依据《社会团体登记管理条例》（2026年修订）第三十条第一款第六项的规定，河南省周口市项城市民政局依法对项城防水协会作出警告的行政处罚。　　案例五：河北省民营经济发展促进会对代表机构疏于管理案　　河北省民营经济发展促进会下属代表机构雄安办事处未经该促进会同意，私自发展会员并收取费用。该促进会未严格履行监管主体责任，对其代表机构日常活动审批、过程管控等关键环节监管措施落实不到位，疏于管理造成严重后果。上述行为违反了《社会团体登记管理条例》（2016年修订）第十七条第一款“ 社会团体的分支机构、代表机构是社会团体的组成部分，不具有法人资格，应当按照其所属于的社会团体的章程所规定的宗旨和业务范围，在该社会团体授权的范围内开展活动、发展会员”的规定。

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